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DTN Midday Grain Comments     05/12 10:43

   Soybeans Up Huge Prior to WASDE

   Corn is 1 to 2 cents higher with new crop 5 to 6 cents lower, soybeans are 
43 to 47 cents higher with new crop 16 to 18 cents higher and wheat flat to 7 
cents lower.

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst


   The U.S. stock market is weaker with the Dow down 300 points. The U.S. 
Dollar Index is 0.54 higher. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are 
firmer with crude up $1.15. Livestock trade is firmer. Precious metals are 
weaker with gold down $12.90.


   Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents higher on the front months, with new crop 5 to 6 
cents lower and early gains fading as trade works to carve out a range in 
pre-report action with domestic weather unthreatening for the moment. The 
weekly ethanol report showed production rebound by 27,000 barrels per day, with 
stocks down by 1.047 million barrels. Cooler weather short term after rains 
should give way to warmer and wetter action by the end of the week with the 
lower two-thirds of the Corn Belt inline for rains. Brazil continues to 
struggle with dryness during pollination with crop estimates still falling. 
Corn basis is holding firm throughout the belt with China buying 680,000 metric 
tons of new crop in the daily wire. The WASDE report is expected to show 
old-crop carryout at 1.269 billion, and new crop and 1.360 billion with 
reductions to world stocks on the Brazil double crop. On the July contract, 
chart resistance is the fresh contract high at $7.35 3/4 with support the 
20-day at $6.58.


   Soybeans are 43 to 46 cents higher upfront, with new crop 16 to 18 cents 
higher and stronger spread action along with the surge in product values 
carrying trade. Meal is $7.50 to $8.50 higher and oil is 2.05 cents to 2.15 
cents higher. The WASDE report is expected to show carryout at 116 million 
bushels on old crop and 138 on new, with world stocks flat from last month. 
Planters will continue to roll short term with some areas of rain slowing 
action, with warmer temps to boost emergence. South America should continue to 
see shipping progress short term, while domestic crush will carry U.S. basis. 
On the July soybean chart, support is the 20-day at $15.22, with resistance on 
the long-term chart high at $16.63.


   Wheat trade is 7 cents lower to 2 cents higher at midday with spring wheat 
leading on weather and flat corn action bogging down the winter wheats, along 
with the sharply stronger dollar. KC is at 36-cent discount to Chicago with 
Minneapolis now 33 cents above Chicago with intramonth spreads mixed. Seasonal 
weather on the Plains should boost growth with dry concerns for spring wheat 
staying in place with some pockets of relief in recent days. Other Northern 
Hemisphere weather will continue to be watched as well with little fresh news 
on the front. The WASDE report is expected to show old-crop carryout at 844 
million bushels, and 743 million on new, with world stocks flat. KC July on the 
chart has support at the recent low of $6.86 3/4, and resistance the upper 
Bollinger Band at $7.59.

   David Fiala can be reached at 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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